Why the California governor’s race could be upended at the last minute

California’s Republican voters have been leading the surge in early voting for Tuesday’s primary, but experts are warning that a late blue wave could dramatically change the results as more votes come in. Just a few weeks ago, data from the research firm Political Data (PDI) showed a significant increase in GOP votes compared to four years ago for the governor’s race. Out of 905,889 ballots returned by May 16, 37% were from Republicans, while only 41% of all returned ballots were from Democrats, down 13 points from four years ago.

As of Tuesday morning, the trend is slowly shifting back to what is expected in a state where Democratic voters outnumber Republicans. PDI data still shows a higher percentage of Republican voters returning their mailed ballots at a 24% rate, compared to only 20% of ballots mailed to Democrats being returned so far. However, the Democratic share of all 4.3 million returned ballots now sits at 48%, while Republicans are at 32%.

Democratic strategist Steve Maviglio predicts that more of the share will be Democratic over the next few days as more Democratic votes are expected to come in. He suggests that voters may have been waiting until the last minute to cast their ballots to ensure that their vote could go towards ensuring the Democratic candidate with the most momentum in the polls makes it to a top two spot.

California is known for being slow when it comes to counting votes. Mailed ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day and can be received up to seven days after Election Day. This means that even days after Tuesday’s primary, the public may still be waiting to see results as more later-than-usual Democratic votes are counted, potentially shifting the odds of who wins as the election results are tracked.

Governor Gavin Newsom has urged election officials to count votes faster, emphasizing the importance of preventing election lies from taking hold. With the possibility of a late blue wave in California’s primary, the final results may not be clear until all votes are counted. Stay tuned for more updates on the outcome of the primary election in California.