‘Getting to public markets first is very important’

OpenAI, the renowned AI giant, is reportedly gearing up to confidentially file for an IPO, setting off a frenzy among prediction market traders. This move has shifted traders’ expectations on which private AI behemoth will make its debut on the public markets first.

According to traders on Kalshi, OpenAI is now seen as the frontrunner to go public before Anthropic, with an impressive 83% chance of beating its chief rival to the IPO finish line. This shift in sentiment underscores the significance of being the first to enter the public markets in the competitive landscape of AI technology.

Dan Ives, Wedbush Securities’ global head of technology research, emphasized the importance of being the first AI company to go public, citing the advantages of setting a valuation, engaging with investors early on, and gaining a strategic edge in the market.

Previously, traders had given OpenAI a modest 32% chance of outpacing Anthropic in the race to an IPO. However, with the latest reports hinting at OpenAI’s imminent IPO filing, the odds have significantly shifted in favor of the former.

On the other hand, Anthropic’s prospects of beating OpenAI to the public markets have dwindled, with traders on Polymarket slashing the chances from 69% to 20%. Despite OpenAI’s groundbreaking ChatGPT technology that kickstarted the AI bull market, concerns over financial performance, missed targets, and leadership turmoil have dampened investor enthusiasm.

In contrast, Anthropic’s enterprise business has been thriving, leading to substantial growth and investor interest. The company’s innovative Claude models, particularly the cutting-edge Claude Mythos, have garnered widespread acclaim and propelled Anthropic ahead of its competitors in the eyes of investors.

With rumors swirling about an impending IPO for Anthropic, coupled with a recent legal victory against Elon Musk, the company is poised for a potential turnaround. Ives believes that the combination of a successful lawsuit and IPO filing could help mitigate negative perceptions surrounding Anthropic and reignite investor confidence.

As the AI industry continues to evolve and expand, the race to the public markets showcases the intense competition and strategic maneuvers among tech giants like OpenAI and Anthropic. The impending IPO filings mark a pivotal moment in the journey of these AI powerhouses, setting the stage for a new chapter in the realm of artificial intelligence.