Who is running Iran right now? Trump, security officials offer different accounts

President Donald Trump has been vocal about his belief that Iran is struggling to determine its leader and is experiencing internal divisions between hardliners and moderates. However, multiple sources involved in security and policy, as well as a former head of the Iran branch in Israeli defense intelligence, have refuted these claims.

According to these sources, decision-making in Iran is no longer centralized around the supreme leader as it was in the past. While there may be differences in emphasis and approach within the Iranian system, there is no clear evidence of fractures at the core decision-making level. The consensus is that Iran is increasingly militarized and controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), established in 1979 to protect the revolution and the regime.

Unlike before the war, decision-making in Iran is now decentralized. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has taken over as the supreme leader but is reportedly in hiding and difficult to reach, leading to slow and challenging decision-making processes.

Key members of the new politburo-style system in Iran include Mojtaba Khamenei, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi, General Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, General Yahya Rahim Safavi, and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf—all of whom have ties to the IRGC.

Speculation has surrounded Mojtaba Khamenei’s health following injuries sustained during the war. While some sources suggest he remains conscious and involved in decision-making, others claim he is in hiding and not in direct contact with key individuals. Despite this, there is a system of communication in place for passing messages, indicating that while Iran may be in disarray, it has not lost control of the country.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has stated that Mojtaba Khamenei was severely injured and disfigured during the conflict. Overall, the situation in Iran appears complex and shrouded in secrecy, with conflicting reports about the state of leadership and decision-making within the country. The New York Times has reported that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is currently recovering from severe injuries, including burns on his face and lips, which are making it difficult for him to speak. This could be a reason why he has not shown himself publicly in recent days.

Hegseth’s injuries are believed to have been sustained during a recent military operation, although the exact details of the incident have not been disclosed. The severity of his injuries has raised concerns about his ability to carry out his duties as Secretary of Defense, as well as speculation about the nature of the operation in which he was injured.

Despite his injuries, Hegseth is said to be in stable condition and is expected to make a full recovery. However, the extent of the damage to his face and lips may require extensive medical treatment and rehabilitation before he is able to resume his public duties.

In the meantime, Hegseth’s absence from the public eye has led to speculation about the state of affairs within the Trump administration and the Israeli government. Some have suggested that the lack of compromise in recent negotiations may be due to Hegseth’s inability to communicate effectively.

An Israeli official has pushed back against this narrative, stating that there have been significant military achievements in recent weeks and that Iran is weaker than ever before. The official also emphasized that there is still work to be done and that negotiations may not be the best approach.

Reports have suggested that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may have pressured President Trump into backing regime change in Iran. However, the Israeli official has denied these claims, stating that regime change was never the goal of the operation.

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran has centered around the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump hoping to use economic pressure to force Iran to make concessions. Israeli officials have expressed support for this strategy, emphasizing Trump’s resolve in maintaining the blockade.

Despite the degradation of Iran’s offensive capabilities, some experts believe that the war has failed to achieve its primary goals. Iranian capabilities remain significant, with thousands of missiles and attack drones still in their possession.

Overall, the situation remains tense, with uncertainty surrounding Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s recovery and the future of U.S.-Iran relations. As the conflict continues to unfold, it is clear that there is still much work to be done to address the ongoing crisis in the region. The Israel Defense Forces have reported that over 550 long-range missiles were launched by Iran at Israel from February 28 to the beginning of the ceasefire in early April. This barrage of missiles was part of Iran’s aggressive actions against Israel during the recent conflict.

At the start of the war, the IDF estimated that Iran had approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles in its arsenal. However, this was considered a conservative estimate and did not include short-range missiles that do not have the capability to reach Israel. The sheer number of missiles launched by Iran highlights the serious threat that the country poses to Israel’s security.

In addition to the missile attacks, concerns have also been raised about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. According to experts, Iran possesses a significant amount of enriched material, which could potentially be further enriched to reach nuclear capabilities in a matter of weeks. This has raised alarm bells among Israeli officials and the international community.

Despite efforts to address Iran’s nuclear program, there are still uncertainties surrounding the exact status of the program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported that it cannot verify Iran’s inventories of centrifuges and related equipment, adding to the complexity of the situation.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has made it clear that Israel is prepared to take action against Iran to eliminate the threat posed by the regime. However, achieving this goal has proven to be challenging, with the need for support from the United States and other allies to effectively address the issue.

The situation remains tense as Israel continues to monitor Iran’s actions closely. The threat of further missile attacks and Iran’s nuclear ambitions are ongoing concerns that require constant vigilance and strategic planning to ensure the safety and security of Israel and its citizens.

Overall, the recent conflict has highlighted the complex nature of the relationship between Israel and Iran, and the ongoing challenges that both countries face in addressing security threats in the region.