World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates

The upcoming June jobs report is anticipated to show stronger numbers than initially expected, thanks in part to the impact of the FIFA World Cup, according to analysis from Goldman Sachs. While economists surveyed by Dow Jones project a gain of 115,000 nonfarm payrolls for the month, down from the previous month’s growth of 172,000, Goldman’s data suggests a more positive outlook.

Goldman Sachs has been tracking data from Homebase, a small business payroll firm, which indicates that the World Cup has had a notable effect on hiring. In fact, the firm estimates that the “Beautiful Game” has contributed approximately 40,000 positions to the job market in June. This boost in hiring has been particularly evident in the 11 cities hosting World Cup matches, where there was only a 1.2% decline in hiring compared to a 3.5% drop in other cities. Additionally, the data shows a 9.5% increase in hospitality hiring, which is believed to be driven by World Cup-related activities.

In a note to clients, Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels highlighted that the impact of the World Cup is likely to be concentrated in sectors such as leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation. As a result, Goldman predicts a total nonfarm payroll growth of 140,000 for June, still lower than the previous month but a significant improvement from the job losses experienced in June 2025.

It is worth noting that the actual job numbers could potentially be higher, as historical data shows a tendency for the initial June payroll estimates to be revised upwards in subsequent reports. In fact, the past four years have seen downward revisions to the initial June counts, suggesting that the final numbers could surpass expectations.

Overall, the influence of the World Cup on hiring trends is a reminder of the interconnected nature of global events and their impact on the economy. As businesses adjust their staffing levels to accommodate increased demand during major sporting events, it underscores the importance of considering external factors when analyzing labor market data.